some abstracts from web on Mobile Future
1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising
- and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile,
location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed ‘ads’; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3
of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes ‘ContVertising’ – and Google’s revenues will be 10x of what
they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video.
2. Tablet devices will become the way many of us will ‘read’ magazines, books, newspapers and even ’attend’ live concerts, conferences and events.
The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide – but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base.
3. Many makers of simple smart phones – probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available
for free – but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the
devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs.
4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without SIM cards. The
likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi /
WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile
network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain – into content and the provision of ‘experiences’
5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile
phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and
flat-rates – many of them Advertising 2.0-supported – will become the primar
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1. Things and services: The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will
drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal, social, visual and
manipulable representations. With all of these personal activities that can be measured or
‘counted’ (Nike+, Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range of
personal and public services.
2. Physical diversification: There will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices.
In many cases a connected object are no longer just ‘mobile’ but e-readers, cameras, music players,
and household appliances all the way up to cars, public spaces and buildings (where there is a good
reason to do so).
3. Daily data: As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our online ‘data shadows’ that are
created out of this data (cf. Mike Kuniavsky), this will have significant effects on everyday life and on
our sense of value in personal information. The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily life
that try to influence the ‘things that can be counted’.
4. Pervasive privacy: Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities, places, relationships,
finances, health, etc. the issues around privacy will really come to a head. Not just the ‘big brother’
privacy issues that will be tested through the legal system, but really sticky, complex social and
personal privacy issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf. Everyware).
5. Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased, pervasive connectivity, there must be an ‘alwayson
backlash’ en masse. There will not just be niche communities choosing to ‘opt-out’, but it will
become culturally, socially necessary and desirable to be offline. The ability to gracefully disconnect and
go ‘dark’ must become a USP for many products and services.
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1. Web of things: an average networked pet will have a voice, generating more
data traffic than the average human
2. Digital syllogomania: digital garbage collection becomes a (very) lucrative
business
3. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on the
ability to regulate urban dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms
4. Seamful design: opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense
data clouds, their scattered intelligent services and their occasional hail of contextual
information.
5. The messiness and unpredictability of the world continue to seriously
challenge any technophilic dreams and their strategies of bordering
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1. Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon, with much misinformed
digital ink spilt
2. The penny starts to drop with companies that Social Marketing Intelligence is
the black gold of the 21st Century
3. Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are constantly updated
to deliver better enabling services begins to transform the media industry – for example
creating highly accurate 3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database
4. Convergence enables the blending of reality from online and off so there is
no distinction
5. The communications revolution accelerates destroying businesses that refuse
to think the unthinkable
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1. Connection managers. They will become critical for
differentiation as devices will be able to handle massive
data speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds for
hours; from any available network.
2. User Interface. Mashup interfaces across voice, touch
and movement will create new experiences for getting data
into and controlling mobile devices. Open (environments)
will change the game.
3. Sensors. Mobile devices will have sensors added which
will enable the capture local data from temperature to noise
and from location to who else is in the room.
4. Business model. Based on game changes 2 and 3,
brands realize that more value is created from the analysis
of sensor data taken off the mobile devices than from user
voice or data usage analysis. Combining the two, sensor
and user data, it will be possible to generate new business
models and shareholder value.
5. Ownership of your data footprint. Every brand
wants to own you and your data. Users will become
discriminating about brands who deliver value to them and
these will be different from those who are in the mobile
retail value chain today. Trust and privacy will be at the
forefront of the user decision.
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1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper
targeted DNA-based services (dating, finance, education, medicine, food, sports)
2. Mobile Neurotech: using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses, thoughts,
emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology
3. mHealth: using mobile sensors, bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile
health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research
4. Internet of Things: multimedia sensors in animals, objects, buildings and places that allow
being present of everything if needed, filtering will be biggest theme in this respect
5. Mobile Learning and Science: mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized
learning (a.o. DNA based) and discovery of important changes in the environment
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1. Still to come ‘Easy Back Up & Storage’ of Address Book, mobile content
and now Apps in case phone is lost, stolen or changed
2. Emotions and social network recommendation based mobile search
3. Mobile payment and transfer (in Europe)
4. SMS based Health & Wellness monitoring and coaching
5. ‘Green Tech’ phones and in emerging countries, self-repairable ones
6. Mobile battery performance and charging solutions
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1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper
targeted DNA-based services (dating, finance, education, medicine, food, sports)
2. Mobile Neurotech: using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses, thoughts,
emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology
3. mHealth: using mobile sensors, bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile
health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research
4. Internet of Things: multimedia sensors in animals, objects, buildings and places that allow
being present of everything if needed, filtering will be biggest theme in this respect
5. Mobile Learning and Science: mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized
learning (a.o. DNA based) and discovery of important changes in the environment
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1. VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer
2. The return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the
“through of disillusionment”
3. Some (rich) people will pay to be disconnected
4. Non-humans (objects, animals, places) will generate more data
than humans
5. Data Structure Service: services that allow to maintain/sort/
structure all these data will gain even more weight
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1. All urban areas offer free (or funded by
tax payer) Wimax connectivity, meaning that most
people don’t bother with an operator relationship any
more. Landlines are gone.
2. Mobile overtakes the PC as the largest
marketing channel, offering the best results and
tracking in the history of marketing.
3. Current handheld form factors disappear,
with interfaces being via glasses or contact lenses, a
microscopic ear piece and a device which we can
envision as a ring for the finger. Three options of
viewing will be available, Real World, Digital World and a
combination of the two ie Augmented Reality. In this
Post PC Era, laptops will be quaintly old-fashioned and
unsupported commercially.
4. Mobile product and service innovation will
be greatly influenced in the next 10 years by emerging
markets, who already live in the Post PC Era today.
Education is the first vertical to be hugely impacted.
5. People still won’t pay for Digital Content.
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Keyboard dimensions and screen size cease to be the primary limiting factors in
handset design as new input and display technologies free designers to radically change the
form factor of personal communication devices.
Services and content are purchased once and accessible across all devices (PC,
mobile, TV etc…) as business models start to reflect the reality of consumer value perception.
The mobile browser becomes the main applications platform.
Smarter middleware becomes essential to mediate between rapid growth in cloudbased
media storage, inherently unreliable wireless networks and a proliferation in access
devices employed by the user.
The most successful network operators will narrow their focus to the ’3 Cs’:
customer service, coverage and capacity, stepping away from large-scale portal, application and
media development efforts.
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1. Device makers will continue to drive the
mobile industry and operators will become more
traditional service providers competing on cost and
network quality.
2. Brands will use apps to drive hundreds of
millions of dollars in sales. Apps will become a
core revenue generator for businesses.
3. Location will become THE core technology
to mobile devices. It will become more ubiquitous
on the device than any other feature. nearly every user
interaction with mobile devices will become location
aware.
4. Location based advertising will explode. The
classic starbucks example will be forgotten. That starbucks
example is driven by a mindset stuck in the web – pop-up
ads, banner ads. Apps and the mobile web will be location
aware, and most mobile advertising will be informed and
targeted by location.
5. Venture capitalists will begin to make major
strategic investments in mobile app companies in
2010 (like the 2009 investments in Shazam, Smule, etc).
Big brands will acquire small apps that enhance their
product offering (eg Amazon & SnapTell)
Ted Mor
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Mobile Networks: Imagine mobile networks without voice services. The switch
from 3g standards into all IP network infrastructure (4g) will turn mobile operators to broadband
providers, decrease the revenues of cable companies, increase profits of voip services and spawn a new
range of mobile services, mobile apps and even mobile devices.
Mobile Internet: Internet usage through mobile devices will overtake desktop/pc usage
based on massive adaptation of mobile internet in the developing world.
Mobile Payment: the mobile is the credit card.
Mobile Entertainment: Games, Music and Movies will find new formats on mobile
devices especially through the rise of augmented reality technology. A handful of startups in this sector
will manage to attract significant audiences.
Mobile Hub: Laptop schlepping will be over cause your phone will fulfill your computing
needs. Smartphones will become as powerful as laptops and take over the laptop and notebook market.
With an increasing number of peripherals from keyboards to displays to 3d glasses the mobile will
become the power processor of your life. Don’t loose it!
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1. 5x more sensors in everyday life;
combination of wearable sensors, remote
sensors and sensors in your phone
2. Operators build and market their own
mobile devices competing with OEMs
3. Wireless charging becomes the standard
and is available everywhere
4. Your super-modular mobile phone will be
powered by a cloud based OS
5. You will travel to go to a no-airwaves
National Park; the first cellular reserve
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1. Unofficial currencies gain power.
2. Login will replace SIM cards.
3. Some nations will grant its people
the right to a cellphone.
4. Appearance of a massively
destructive synchronized mobile
virus.
5. North Korea will join the Web.
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These thoughts are from Rudy De Waele at http://m-trends.org
